2026 midterm forecast
Michigan House
All 13 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
8 D · 5 R
of 13
Seats today
6 D · 7 R
Statewide House vote
D+9.8
94% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 15% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Democrats are on track to flip three Michigan House seats
Republicans hold MI-04, MI-07 and MI-10, and Democrats lead in all three. Their edge in MI-04 is just 1.4 points, so they are expected to finish with about eight of Michigan's 13 seats, up from six today.
Voters under 30 favor Democrats by 41.4 points, and college graduates back them by 38.5. Republicans keep a 4.1-point edge among voters without a degree.
The race
Michigan elects 13 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 6 Democrats and 7 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-01 | Callie Barr (D) vs. Jack Bergman (R) | R | R+12.8 | 93% R | Likely R |
| MI-02 | Ben Ambrose (D) vs. John Moolenaar (R) | R | R+19.6 | 99% R | Safe R |
| MI-03 | Hillary Scholten (D) vs. Terri DeBoer (R) | D | D+17.4 | 98% D | Safe D |
| MI-04 | Sean McCann (D) vs. Bill Huizenga (R) | R | D+1.4 | 56% D | Toss-upFlip |
| MI-05 | Christian Vukasovich (D) vs. Tim Walberg (R) | R | R+17.6 | 98% R | Safe R |
| MI-06 | Debbie Dingell (D) vs. Heather Smiley (R) | D | D+35.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MI-07 | William Lawrence (D) vs. Tom Barrett (R) | R | D+8.7 | 85% D | Likely DFlip |
| MI-08 | Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) vs. Thomas J. Smith (R) | D | D+8.5 | 84% D | Likely D |
| MI-09 | Ray Pooley (D) vs. Lisa McClain (R) | R | R+16.7 | 98% R | Safe R |
| MI-10 | Christina Hines (D) vs. Mike Bouchard (R) | R | D+5.1 | 73% D | Lean DFlip |
| MI-11 | Jeremy Moss (D) vs. Ethan Baker (R) | D | D+32.0 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MI-12 | Rashida Tlaib (D) vs. James Hooper (R) | D | D+51.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MI-13 | Donavan McKinney (D) vs. Taras Nykoriak (R) | D | D+52.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.