2026 midterm forecast
Michigan governor
Jocelyn Benson (D) vs. John James (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
93%
Jocelyn Benson
Projected margin
D+8.2
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
14%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Michigan's open governor's race tilts toward Benson
With Whitmer not running, Democrats are favored to keep the governor's office behind Benson, who leads Republican James by a clear but not overwhelming margin.
Men tilt to James by 0.9 points, but women favor Benson by 21.1. Her biggest lead is among voters under 30, at 39.9 points, and James wins voters without a degree by 7.
The race
- Democrat
- Jocelyn Benson (D)
- Republican
- John James (R)
- Seat held by
- Gretchen Whitmer (D), not running
The open seat pits Democrat Jocelyn Benson, the secretary of state, against Republican U.S. Rep. John James, who defeated Perry Johnson in the primary. Benson talks about public education and health and child care costs, and she ties James to Trump's policies. James focuses on declining test scores, energy costs and local control over data centers, and he blames Democrats' record.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.BensonJames
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.