2026 midterm forecast
Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
66%
Mary Peltola
Projected margin
D+2.3
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
14%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Peltola could unseat Sullivan in a tight Alaska Senate race
Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, is running again, and Peltola has a narrow lead that would flip the seat to Democrats. The race is close, and a small shift toward Sullivan would put him in front.
Age is a sharp dividing line. Peltola leads by 17.2 points among voters 30 to 44 and by 12.7 among those 18 to 29, while Sullivan wins voters 65 and older by 10.0. Nearly half of those who skipped the 2024 election, 49%, have not picked a side.
The race
- Democrat
- Mary Peltola (D)
- Republican
- Dan Sullivan (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Gerald Heikes (R), Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (no party listed)
- Seat held by
- Dan Sullivan (R), running
- Note
- Top-four ballot with ranked-choice voting
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term against Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola on a four-candidate ranked-choice ballot set by the Aug. 18 top-four primary. Peltola is running on living costs and wants to reverse Medicaid cuts and ban factory trawling. Sullivan has campaigned on tax cuts, fisheries bycatch legislation and federal rural health funding.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.PeltolaSullivan
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.