2026 midterm forecast
Alaska governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Bernadette Wilson (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Projected margin
D+17.3
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
17%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Kreiss-Tomkins is poised to flip Alaska's governorship for Democrats
With Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy not running, Kreiss-Tomkins is a heavy favorite to take the open seat for Democrats. A win would flip an office Republicans hold now, and Wilson is well back.
The gender gap is wide. Women back Kreiss-Tomkins by 19.3 points, while men favor Wilson by 15.5. Education cuts the same way, with college graduates for the Democrat by 26.8 points and voters without a degree for Wilson by 12.6.
The race
- Democrat
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
- Republican
- Bernadette Wilson (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Dave Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R)
- Seat held by
- Mike Dunleavy (R), not running
- Note
- Top-four ranked-choice: one Democrat vs three Republicans
Democratic former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins of Sitka (2013–2023), whose running mate is independent Anchorage Assembly member Zac Johnson, placed first in the Aug. 18 top-four primary that set a four-candidate ranked-choice ballot for the open seat. He has been endorsed by Democrat Tom Begich, who placed second and withdrew, and by Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski and former Republican state Sen. Lesil McGuire. Republican leaders are urging voters to rank all three Republicans in the race, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (2021–2024), former Attorney General Treg Taylor (2021–2025) and Bernadette Wilson, a business owner and conservative activist who has not held elected office and sponsored the initiative to repeal ranked-choice voting. Kreiss-Tomkins backs a smaller, sustainable Permanent Fund dividend and taxing oil producer Hilcorp, while the Republicans oppose new taxes and Wilson supports the full statutory dividend.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.Kreiss-TomkinsWilson
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.