2026 midterm forecast
Alaska
Three races on Alaska's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and the at-large House seat.
Forecast published October 30, 2026
Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)
Chance to win
66%
Peltola
Projected margin
D+2.3
Peltola could unseat Sullivan in a tight Alaska Senate race
Read the forecastAlaska governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Bernadette Wilson (R)
Chance to win
>99%
Kreiss-Tomkins
Projected margin
D+17.3
Kreiss-Tomkins is poised to flip Alaska's governorship for Democrats
Read the forecastAlaska House
The at-large House seat
Expected seats
0 D · 1 R
Statewide House vote
R+4.7
Republicans are favored to keep Alaska's only House seat
Read the forecast