2026 midterm forecast
Alaska House
The at-large House seat
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win the seat
70%
Nicholas Begich (R)
Seat margin
R+4.7
Statewide House vote
R+4.7
76% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 20% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Republicans are favored to keep Alaska's only House seat
Alaska sends one member to the House from a single at-large district, and Republicans hold it today. Their edge is narrow enough that Democrats could still win it.
Men give Republicans their biggest advantage, 22.8 points, while women lean Democratic by 17.8. Voters 65 and older also tilt Republican, by 12.9 points, and the youngest voters lean the other way, by 6.0.
The race
Alaska elects one member of the U.S. House, at large. The seat is held by Nick Begich (R).
On the ballot: Hill (I) vs. Nicholas Begich (R).
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Hill (I) vs. Nicholas Begich (R) | R | R+4.7 | 70% R | Lean R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.