2026 midterm forecast
Alabama Senate
Everett Wess (D) vs. Barry Moore (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Barry Moore
Projected margin
R+19.9
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
15%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Barry Moore is far ahead for Alabama's open Senate seat
Tommy Tuberville, the Republican who holds the seat, is not running again. Moore is a lopsided favorite to succeed him over Democrat Wess.
Moore's lead grows with age, from 7.9 points among voters 18 to 29 to 37.4 among those 65 and older. Rural voters back him by 36.0 points, and he carries 95% of Trump voters.
The race
- Democrat
- Everett Wess (D)
- Republican
- Barry Moore (R)
- Seat held by
- Tommy Tuberville (R), not running
The seat is open because Sen. Tommy Tuberville is running for governor. Republican U.S. Rep. Barry Moore has campaigned on border security, ending congressional stock trading and his ties to President Trump. Democratic attorney Everett Wess backs a higher federal minimum wage and is focused on living costs and crime.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.WessMoore
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.