2026 midterm forecast
Alabama governor
Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
98%
Tommy Tuberville
Projected margin
R+12.2
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
15%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Tuberville is the clear favorite to succeed Ivey in Alabama
Republican Gov. Kay Ivey is not running, and Tuberville is in a strong position to keep the office in Republican hands. Jones, the Democrat, is well behind.
Urban voters are the only group Jones carries, by 8.0 points. Tuberville wins rural voters by 32.6 points and voters without a degree by 28.0, while his edge among college graduates is just 2.8.
The race
- Democrat
- Doug Jones (D)
- Republican
- Tommy Tuberville (R)
- Seat held by
- Kay Ivey (R), not running
Gov. Kay Ivey is term-limited, leaving the seat open. Both nominees, Republican U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville and Democratic former U.S. Sen. Doug Jones, propose ending the state grocery tax. Tuberville also talks about job recruitment, phased income tax cuts and smaller state government. Jones has made Medicaid expansion, public education and a state lottery his priorities.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.JonesTuberville
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.