2026 midterm forecast
Alabama House
All 7 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
New map for 2026Expected seats
1 D · 6 R
of 7
Seats today
2 D · 5 R
Statewide House vote
R+25.4
>99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 16% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Republicans are favored to pick up AL-02 under Alabama's new map
Alabama votes under a new map in 2026, and Republicans are expected to win six of its seven House seats, up from five. The pickup would come in AL-02, a Democratic seat where Republicans now lead by 11.0 points. Democrats lead AL-07 by 26.6 points.
Republicans lead in every age, gender, education and area group. Their margin is widest among voters 65 and older, at 37.4 points, and narrowest among college graduates, at 9.5.
The race
Alabama elects 7 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Democrats and 5 Republicans. The 2026 election uses a new congressional map.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | Clyde Jones (D) vs. Jerry Carl (R) | R | R+31.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
| AL-02 | Shomari Figures (D) vs. Rhett Marques (R) | D | R+11.0 | 90% R | Likely RFlip |
| AL-03 | Lee McInnis (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R) | R | R+39.1 | >99% R | Safe R |
| AL-04 | Amanda Pusczek (D) vs. Robert Aderholt (R) | R | R+60.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| AL-05 | Andrew Sneed (D) vs. Dale Strong (R) | R | R+22.7 | >99% R | Safe R |
| AL-06 | Maurice Mercer (D) vs. Gary Palmer (R) | R | R+31.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| AL-07 | Terri Sewell (D) vs. Ammie Akin (R) | D | D+26.6 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.