2026 midterm forecast
Massachusetts governor
Maura Healey (D) vs. Mike Minogue (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Maura Healey
Projected margin
D+29.7
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
14%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Healey heads for a lopsided reelection win in Massachusetts
Healey, the Democratic governor, is running again with a commanding lead over Republican Minogue. She is ahead in every age, gender, education and area group.
Her margins are widest among the youngest voters and college graduates. Voters aged 18 to 29 back her by 56.5 points and college graduates by 51.1, while those without a degree favor her by a narrower 13.1.
The race
- Democrat
- Maura Healey (D)
- Republican
- Mike Minogue (R)
- Seat held by
- Maura Healey (D), running
Democratic Gov. Maura Healey wants a second term, and her Republican opponent is Mike Minogue, a former medical-device CEO who won the Sept. 1 primary. Healey is running on housing construction, health care costs, abortion protections and resisting Trump immigration enforcement. Minogue promises to cut energy costs with gas pipelines, ease building rules and cooperate with federal immigration authorities.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.HealeyMinogue
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.