2026 midterm forecast
Tennessee governor
Jerri Green (D) vs. Marsha Blackburn (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Marsha Blackburn
Projected margin
R+16.6
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
15%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Tennessee's open governor's race tilts heavily toward Blackburn
Blackburn is trying to keep the governor's office in Republican hands with Lee not running, and she is well ahead of Green, the Democrat. Hatley and Pinkston are also running as independents.
Green leads urban voters by 25.4 points and college graduates by 10.9. Blackburn runs up much bigger margins with rural voters and those without a degree, at 40.7 and 42.1 points.
The race
- Democrat
- Jerri Green (D)
- Republican
- Marsha Blackburn (R)
- Also on the ballot
- David Hatley (I), Lauren Pinkston (I)
- Seat held by
- Bill Lee (R), not running
With Gov. Bill Lee term-limited, the seat is open. Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn's campaign has focused on immigration enforcement, transportation, rural health care and expanding private-school vouchers. Democrat Jerri Green, a Memphis City Council member and interim county public defender, supports ending the grocery tax, Medicaid expansion and a data-center moratorium. Independent manufacturer David Hatley is also running.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.GreenBlackburn
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.