2026 midterm forecast
Tennessee Senate
Marquita Bradshaw (D) vs. Bill Hagerty (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Bill Hagerty
Projected margin
R+24.2
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
16%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Hagerty heads for a comfortable win over Bradshaw in Tennessee
Hagerty is well positioned as he seeks reelection, with a large lead over Bradshaw, the Democrat. Republicans are in little danger of losing the seat.
Hagerty's gender gap is wide, with a 40.9-point lead among men and a 6.6-point lead among women. Bradshaw does best in cities, where she leads by 24.7 points, but Hagerty wins rural areas by 41.7.
The race
- Democrat
- Marquita Bradshaw (D)
- Republican
- Bill Hagerty (R)
- Seat held by
- Bill Hagerty (R), running
Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty is again facing Democrat Marquita Bradshaw, a Memphis environmental activist he defeated in 2020. Hagerty backs low taxes, spending cuts, energy production and President Trump's immigration policies. Bradshaw has made affordable housing and health care, rural hospitals and public schools central to her campaign.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.BradshawHagerty
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.