2026 midterm forecast
Tennessee House
All 9 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
New map for 2026Expected seats
0 D · 9 R
of 9
Seats today
1 D · 8 R
Statewide House vote
R+24.4
>99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 17% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Democrats' only Tennessee seat is projected to flip under the new map
Tennessee votes under a new map in 2026, and Republicans are expected to win all nine seats, up from eight today. TN-09, the one Democratic seat, is projected to flip. It is also the closest district, with Republicans ahead there by 12.8 points.
Democrats win cities by 24.4 points, but Republicans counter with a 42.4-point lead in rural areas. Education splits the state in a similar way, with college graduates leaning Democratic and voters without a degree favoring Republicans by 43.7 points.
The race
Tennessee elects 9 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 1 Democrat and 8 Republicans. The 2026 election uses a new congressional map.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN-01 | Kristi Burke (D) vs. Diana Harshbarger (R) | R | R+56.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
| TN-02 | Michaela Barnett (D) vs. Tim Burchett (R) | R | R+29.6 | >99% R | Safe R |
| TN-03 | Anna Golladay (D) vs. Charles J. Fleischmann (R) | R | R+29.6 | >99% R | Safe R |
| TN-04 | Victoria Broderick (D) vs. Scott DesJarlais (R) | R | R+18.5 | 98% R | Safe R |
| TN-05 | Chaz Molder (D) vs. Charlie Hatcher (R) | R | R+14.7 | 96% R | Safe R |
| TN-06 | Mike Croley (D) vs. Johnny Garrett (R) | R | R+23.4 | >99% R | Safe R |
| TN-07 | Darden Copeland (D) vs. Matt Van Epps (R) | R | R+18.1 | 98% R | Safe R |
| TN-08 | Heidi Kuhn (D) vs. David Kustoff (R) | R | R+17.0 | 98% R | Safe R |
| TN-09 | Justin Pearson (D) vs. Brent Taylor (R) | D | R+12.8 | 93% R | Likely RFlip |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.