2026 midterm forecast
Tennessee
Three races on Tennessee's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 9 House seats.
Forecast published October 30, 2026
Tennessee Senate
Marquita Bradshaw (D) vs. Bill Hagerty (R)
Chance to win
>99%
Hagerty
Projected margin
R+24.2
Hagerty heads for a comfortable win over Bradshaw in Tennessee
Read the forecastTennessee governor
Jerri Green (D) vs. Marsha Blackburn (R)
Chance to win
>99%
Blackburn
Projected margin
R+16.6
Tennessee's open governor's race tilts heavily toward Blackburn
Read the forecastTennessee House
All 9 House seats
Expected seats
0 D · 9 R
Statewide House vote
R+24.4
Democrats' only Tennessee seat is projected to flip under the new map
Read the forecast