2026 midterm forecast
Rhode Island governor
Helena Foulkes (D) vs. Aaron Guckian (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Helena Foulkes
Projected margin
D+34.4
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
20%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Foulkes is the clear favorite for Rhode Island's open governorship
With McKee, the Democratic governor, not running, Foulkes is well placed to keep the office for her party. Guckian, the Republican, trails by a wide margin, and Block is also running as an independent.
She leads in every age and education group, but by very different margins. Foulkes is up 41.9 points among voters 18–29 and 37.8 among college graduates, compared with 9.0 among those 30–44 and 9.3 among voters without a degree.
The race
- Democrat
- Helena Foulkes (D)
- Republican
- Aaron Guckian (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Ken Block (I)
- Seat held by
- Dan McKee (D), not running
- Note
- Main challenger is independent Ken Block, not the Republican
Democrat Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive, defeated Gov. Dan McKee 62.5% to 37.5% in the Sept. 9 primary and faces Republican Aaron Guckian, a former dental association director, and independent Ken Block, a software firm founder. Foulkes wants to build 20,000 middle-class homes. Guckian is pushing to lower taxes and fees. Block's priority is cutting government waste.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.FoulkesGuckian
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.