2026 midterm forecast
Rhode Island House
All 2 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
2 D · 0 R
of 2
Seats today
2 D · 0 R
Statewide House vote
D+21.7
>99% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 20% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Democrats are set to keep both of Rhode Island's House seats
Democrats hold both Rhode Island districts and are expected to keep them, with no seat projected to change hands. RI-02 is the closer of the two, with Democrats ahead by 15.9 points, and RI-01 is more lopsided at 28.1.
Women back Democrats by 32.9 points, compared with 13.4 among men. The education gap is wider still, with college graduates favoring Democrats by 39.5 points and voters without a degree by 10.4.
The race
Rhode Island elects 2 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Democrats.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RI-01 | Gabe Amo (D) vs. Kellie Keenan (R) | D | D+28.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| RI-02 | Seth Magaziner (D) vs. Victor Mellor (R) | D | D+15.9 | 98% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.