2026 midterm forecast
Rhode Island Senate
Jack Reed (D) vs. Raymond McKay (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Jack Reed
Projected margin
D+28.2
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
18%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Reed is cruising toward another Senate term in Rhode Island
Reed, the Democratic incumbent, is running again and holds a commanding lead over McKay, the Republican. The seat does not look competitive.
McKay comes closest in rural areas, where Reed's lead shrinks to 9.4 points. The widest gap is by education, with Reed ahead by 39.5 points among college graduates and 12.2 among voters without a degree.
The race
- Democrat
- Jack Reed (D)
- Republican
- Raymond McKay (R)
- Seat held by
- Jack Reed (D), running
Republican Raymond McKay, a former Warwick city administrator, is challenging Democratic Sen. Jack Reed, who has been in office since 1997. Reed wants to end what he calls an unauthorized Iran war, opposes tariffs and talks about housing and health costs. McKay backs nuclear and fossil-fuel energy and border security, and he wants to balance the budget to protect Social Security and Medicare.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.ReedMcKay
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.