2026 midterm forecast
New Hampshire Senate
Chris Pappas (D) vs. John E. Sununu (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
97%
Chris Pappas
Projected margin
D+10.3
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
18%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Pappas is in position to keep Shaheen's seat for Democrats
Democratic Sen. Shaheen is not seeking reelection, and Pappas is a strong favorite to hold her seat for the party against Sununu, the Republican.
Pappas is ahead in every group by age, gender, education and area. His narrowest edge is among voters without a degree, at 0.9 points, compared with 37.1 among college graduates. Sununu keeps 84% of 2024 Trump voters, and Pappas keeps 98% of Harris voters.
The race
- Democrat
- Chris Pappas (D)
- Republican
- John E. Sununu (R)
- Seat held by
- Jeanne Shaheen (D), not running
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu are running for her open seat. Pappas has made costs his focus and blames them on tariffs and the Iran war. Sununu points to his experience and talks about energy infrastructure and inflation, which he blames on Biden-era policies. The two have clashed over Social Security.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.PappasSununu
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.