2026 midterm forecast
New Hampshire governor
Cinde Warmington (D) vs. Kelly Ayotte (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
93%
Kelly Ayotte
Projected margin
R+8.2
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
14%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Ayotte looks set to win another term as New Hampshire governor
Ayotte, the Republican governor, is running again and holds a comfortable lead over Warmington, the Democratic challenger. Warmington would need a sizable shift to catch up.
Education is where the two candidates part ways. Warmington leads college graduates by 20.5 points, and Ayotte leads voters without a degree by 14.3. Both hold their bases, with 96% of 2024 Trump voters behind Ayotte and 92% of Harris voters behind Warmington.
The race
- Democrat
- Cinde Warmington (D)
- Republican
- Kelly Ayotte (R)
- Seat held by
- Kelly Ayotte (R), running
Democrat Cinde Warmington, a former executive councilor, is running against Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is seeking a second two-year term. Ayotte's campaign is built around housing supply, a local property tax cap and opposition to income and sales taxes. Warmington focuses on housing costs, which she ties to private equity, as well as health care and higher education funding.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.WarmingtonAyotte
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.