2026 midterm forecast
Connecticut governor
Ned Lamont (D) vs. Ryan Fazio (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Ned Lamont
Projected margin
D+21.6
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
18%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Lamont is on course for a lopsided win in Connecticut
Lamont, the Democratic governor, wants another term and is far ahead of Republican Fazio. No group of voters tilts toward the challenger.
Lamont's biggest edge is with voters 18 to 29, who back him by 50.7 points. His weakest showing is among voters without a degree, where he leads by just 3.6. Each candidate holds 93% of his side's 2024 voters.
The race
- Democrat
- Ned Lamont (D)
- Republican
- Ryan Fazio (R)
- Seat held by
- Ned Lamont (D), running
Republican state Sen. Ryan Fazio of Greenwich is challenging Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont, who is seeking a third term. Lamont has campaigned on budget surpluses, middle-class income tax cuts and lower electric bills. Fazio's platform includes property tax relief, restoring budget guardrails and taxing large university endowments. In debates Oct. 22 and Oct. 27, the two also differed on limiting state cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.LamontFazio
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.