2026 midterm forecast
Connecticut House
All 5 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
5 D · 0 R
of 5
Seats today
5 D · 0 R
Statewide House vote
D+21.6
>99% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 16% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Connecticut's five House seats should stay in Democratic hands
All five of Connecticut's seats are held by Democrats, and none appears in danger. Even CT-05, the closest race, gives them a 12.5-point lead, and CT-02 is next at 14.7.
Of the people who did not vote in 2024, 80% are undecided. Among those who did vote, loyalty runs high, with 98% of Harris voters backing Democrats and 92% of Trump voters backing Republicans.
The race
Connecticut elects 5 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 5 Democrats.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT-01 | Luke Bronin (D) vs. Amy Chai (R) | D | D+30.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CT-02 | Joe Courtney (D) vs. George Austin (R) | D | D+14.7 | 95% D | Safe D |
| CT-03 | Rosa L. DeLauro (D) vs. Christopher Lancia (R) | D | D+21.2 | 99% D | Safe D |
| CT-04 | Jim Himes (D) vs. Michael Goldstein (R) | D | D+30.6 | >99% D | Safe D |
| CT-05 | Jahana Hayes (D) vs. Chris Shea (R) | D | D+12.5 | 92% D | Likely D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.