2026 midterm forecast
Colorado Senate
John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Mark Baisley (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
John Hickenlooper
Projected margin
D+23.1
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
11%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Hickenlooper looks secure in his bid for another Senate term
Baisley, the Republican, faces a steep climb against Hickenlooper, the Democratic incumbent, who is seeking reelection. The seat does not look competitive.
Rural voters are nearly split, with Hickenlooper ahead by 0.7 points. His margins are far larger in cities, 33.5 points, and among college graduates, 45.6. Trump voters are less united than Harris voters, with 88% backing Baisley against 100% for Hickenlooper.
The race
- Democrat
- John Hickenlooper (D)
- Republican
- Mark Baisley (R)
- Seat held by
- John Hickenlooper (D), running
Democratic Sen. John Hickenlooper, who says this would be his last term, faces Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley. Hickenlooper has blamed tariffs, the 2025 Republican tax law and the Iran war for rising costs, and he wants the wealthy to pay more. Baisley, who favors a free-market approach to health care, has called for smaller government and defended the tariffs.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.HickenlooperBaisley
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.