2026 midterm forecast
Colorado governor
Phil Weiser (D) vs. Victor Marx (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Phil Weiser
Projected margin
D+18.4
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
11%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Weiser leads Marx comfortably in Colorado's open governor's race
Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, is not on the ballot, and Weiser is a strong favorite to succeed him. Republican Marx has a lot of ground to make up.
Marx carries just one group, rural voters, and only by 1.4 points. Weiser's lead is 43.4 points among college graduates but 4.6 among voters without a degree.
The race
- Democrat
- Phil Weiser (D)
- Republican
- Victor Marx (R)
- Seat held by
- Jared Polis (D), not running
The seat is open, as Gov. Jared Polis is term-limited. Democratic Attorney General Phil Weiser's campaign centers on school funding, housing partnerships and environmental enforcement. Republican Victor Marx, a Marine Corps veteran and ministry founder, talks about auditing state spending including Medicaid, cutting regulations and energy reliability.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.WeiserMarx
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.