2026 midterm forecast
Wyoming governor
Kenneth Casner (D) vs. Eric Barlow (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Eric Barlow
Projected margin
R+34.2
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
12%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Barlow is on track to keep Wyoming's governorship Republican
Barlow is far ahead of Casner, the Democrat, in the race to succeed Gordon, a fellow Republican who is not running. Bextel is the Constitution Party candidate.
Barlow leads in every age group, by as little as 27.8 points among voters 18–29 and as much as 51.7 among those 30–44. Voters without a degree back him by 49.2 points, and college graduates by 33.5.
The race
- Democrat
- Kenneth Casner (D)
- Republican
- Eric Barlow (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Rebecca Bextel (Constitution Party)
- Seat held by
- Mark Gordon (R), not running
Republican state Sen. Eric Barlow, a rancher and former House speaker, faces Democrat Kenneth Casner, a past candidate for governor and Senate, in the open race to replace term-limited Gov. Mark Gordon. Barlow talks about energy, rural health care and recent property tax cuts. Casner has focused on working-class residents and on refusing campaign donations.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.CasnerBarlow
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.