2026 midterm forecast
Wyoming Senate
James W. Byrd (D) vs. Harriet Hageman (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Harriet Hageman
Projected margin
R+39.1
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
13%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Hageman is the overwhelming favorite to replace Lummis in Wyoming
Republicans are all but certain to keep the seat Lummis is giving up. Hageman, the party's candidate, has a wide lead over Byrd, the Democrat.
Hageman's margin is widest among voters without a degree and those 45–64, at 44.5 and 44.3 points. College graduates are the least lopsided group, though they still favor her by 21.8.
The race
- Democrat
- James W. Byrd (D)
- Republican
- Harriet Hageman (R)
- Seat held by
- Cynthia Lummis (R), not running
With Sen. Cynthia Lummis retiring, Republican U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman and Democrat James Byrd, a former state legislator, are competing for the open seat. Hageman is campaigning on regulatory reform, legacy energy industries, cutting federal spending and state authority. Byrd wants to keep federal lands public, protect water rights and rural hospitals, and make data centers pay for grid upgrades.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.ByrdHageman
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.