2026 midterm forecast
Wyoming House
The at-large House seat
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win the seat
>99%
Chuck Gray (R)
Seat margin
R+40.9
Statewide House vote
R+40.4
>99% R · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 14% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Republicans hold a commanding lead for Wyoming's only House seat
The at-large district favors Republicans by 40.9 points, and they are expected to keep it with room to spare.
Men and women vote much alike, with Republicans up 39.1 points among men and 37.5 among women. Education matters more, with Republicans leading by 45.2 points among voters without a degree and 25.5 among college graduates.
The race
Wyoming elects one member of the U.S. House, at large. The seat is held by Harriet Hageman (R).
On the ballot: Lisa Kinney (D) vs. Chuck Gray (R).
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WY-AL | Lisa Kinney (D) vs. Chuck Gray (R) | R | R+40.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.