2026 midterm forecast
Virginia House
All 11 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
9 D · 2 R
of 11
Seats today
6 D · 5 R
Statewide House vote
D+20.9
>99% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 14% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Democrats are poised to flip three Republican seats in Virginia
Democrats are favored in VA-01, VA-02 and VA-05, all held by Republicans, and are expected to finish with nine of Virginia's 11 seats, up from six. VA-05 is the tightest, with Democrats ahead by 3.8 points, while Republicans lead VA-06 by 8.8.
Republicans lead only in rural areas, by 22.9 points, while Democrats lead in cities by 46.1. College graduates favor Democrats by 45.9 points, but their lead is much narrower among voters without a degree, at 5.7.
The race
Virginia elects 11 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 | Shannon Taylor (D) vs. Robert J. Wittman (R) | R | D+9.9 | 88% D | Likely DFlip |
| VA-02 | Elaine Luria (D) vs. Jen A. Kiggans (R) | R | D+14.5 | 96% D | Safe DFlip |
| VA-03 | Robert C. Scott (D) vs. Edwin Rivera (R) | D | D+50.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
| VA-04 | Jennifer McClellan (D) vs. Robert Murray (R) | D | D+45.4 | >99% D | Safe D |
| VA-05 | Tom Perriello (D) vs. John McGuire (R) | R | D+3.8 | 67% D | Lean DFlip |
| VA-06 | Beth Macy (D) vs. Benjamin Lee Cline (R) | R | R+8.8 | 85% R | Likely R |
| VA-07 | Eugene Vindman (D) vs. Douglas Ollivant (R) | D | D+18.4 | 98% D | Safe D |
| VA-08 | Don Beyer (D) vs. Tony Sabio (R) | D | D+64.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| VA-09 | Joy Powers (D) vs. H. Morgan Griffith (R) | R | R+30.0 | >99% R | Safe R |
| VA-10 | Suhas Subramanyam (D) vs. Dave T. Beckwith (R) | D | D+25.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| VA-11 | James Walkinshaw (D) vs. Arthur Purves (R) | D | D+47.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.