2026 midterm forecast
Virginia Senate
Mark Warner (D) vs. Bert Mizusawa (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Mark Warner
Projected margin
D+23.9
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
12%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Mizusawa faces a steep climb against Warner in Virginia
Warner holds the seat for Democrats and is running again, with a wide lead over Mizusawa, the Republican. By area, Mizusawa leads only in rural Virginia, by 18.1 points.
Warner's margin is largest among college graduates, at 48.0 points, and smallest among voters 65 and older, at 9.7. Only 78% of 2024 Trump voters back Mizusawa, while 97% of Harris voters support Warner.
The race
- Democrat
- Mark Warner (D)
- Republican
- Bert Mizusawa (R)
- Seat held by
- Mark Warner (D), running
Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, a former governor, is seeking a fourth term he says would be his last and faces Republican Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army major general. Warner backs universal health coverage and standards for artificial intelligence and data centers, and he wants to end the Iran war and tariffs to lower prices. Mizusawa cites his national security experience and ties to President Trump and argues for domestic energy production, deficit reduction and a gradual return to a gold standard.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.WarnerMizusawa
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.