2026 midterm forecast

Virginia

Two races on Virginia's November 3 ballot: the Senate and all 11 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Virginia Senate

Mark Warner (D) vs. Bert Mizusawa (R)

Chance to win

>99%

Warner

Projected margin

D+23.9

Mizusawa faces a steep climb against Warner in Virginia

All 11 House seats

Expected seats

9 D · 2 R

Statewide House vote

D+20.9

Democrats are poised to flip three Republican seats in Virginia