2026 midterm forecast
Missouri House
All 8 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
3 D · 5 R
of 8
Seats today
2 D · 6 R
Statewide House vote
R+10.4
94% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 22% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Missouri Democrats are slight favorites to add a third House seat
Republicans hold six of Missouri's eight House seats, but Democrats are expected to gain one and finish with three. The pickup would come in MO-02, a Republican-held district where Democrats lead by just 1.8 points.
The education split is nearly a mirror image, 35.7 points for Democrats among college graduates and 35.2 for Republicans among voters without a degree. Rural voters give Republicans a 46.1-point edge.
The race
Missouri elects 8 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Democrats and 6 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO-01 | Wesley Bell (D) vs. Paul Berry (R) | D | D+67.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MO-02 | Frederick Wellman (D) vs. Ann Wagner (R) | R | D+1.8 | 58% D | Toss-upFlip |
| MO-03 | Bethany Mann (D) vs. Bob Onder (R) | R | R+17.9 | 98% R | Safe R |
| MO-04 | Jordan Herrera (D) vs. Mark Alford (R) | R | R+36.3 | >99% R | Safe R |
| MO-05 | Emanuel Cleaver (D) vs. Rick Brattin (R) | D | D+30.0 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MO-06 | Josh Smead (D) vs. Chris Stigall (R) | R | R+33.1 | >99% R | Safe R |
| MO-07 | Missi Hesketh (D) vs. Eric Burlison (R) | R | R+36.2 | >99% R | Safe R |
| MO-08 | Christopher Reichard (D) vs. Jason Smith (R) | R | R+43.4 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.