2026 midterm forecast
Arizona governor
Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Andy Biggs (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
94%
Katie Hobbs
Projected margin
D+8.7
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
22%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Hobbs has a 94% chance to hold Arizona's governorship
Hobbs is running for reelection as Arizona's Democratic governor and is a solid favorite over Republican Biggs. Many voters are still making up their minds.
Education draws the clearest line. College graduates back Hobbs by 27.6 points, and voters without a degree lean to Biggs by 5.1. Hobbs also leads in all three area types, with her widest edge, 10.9 points, in rural areas.
The race
- Democrat
- Katie Hobbs (D)
- Republican
- Andy Biggs (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Teri Hourihan (No Labels), Risa Lombardo (Green Party)
- Seat held by
- Katie Hobbs (D), running
Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, seeking a second term with former Mesa Mayor John Giles as her running mate, faces Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and his running mate, Sine Kerr, a former state senator. It is Arizona's first election with a lieutenant governor on the ticket. Hobbs has focused on housing costs, water and border security, and her ads have criticized Biggs's efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Biggs, who wants to phase out the state income tax and has made an issue of Medicaid fraud, has run ads criticizing a state contractor's rate increase after its executives donated to Hobbs.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.HobbsBiggs
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.