2026 midterm forecast
Arizona House
All 9 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
5 D · 4 R
of 9
Seats today
3 D · 6 R
Statewide House vote
D+5.4
80% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 21% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Democrats could take a majority of Arizona's House seats
Democrats are expected to win five of Arizona's nine seats, up from three, by flipping AZ-01 and AZ-06. Republicans hold narrow leads in two other districts, AZ-02 by 4.9 points and AZ-08 by 5.8.
Democrats run strongest among college graduates, who back them by 31.0 points, and women, who favor them by 21.1. Men and voters without a degree lean Republican, by 6.0 and 5.6 points.
The race
Arizona elects 9 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 3 Democrats and 6 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | Amish Shah (D) vs. Jay Feely (R) | R | D+7.5 | 82% D | Likely DFlip |
| AZ-02 | Jonathan Nez (D) vs. Eli Crane (R) | R | R+4.9 | 71% R | Lean R |
| AZ-03 | Yassamin Ansari (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| AZ-04 | Greg Stanton (D) vs. Zuhdi Jasser (R) | D | D+17.4 | 98% D | Safe D |
| AZ-05 | Elizabeth Lee (D) vs. Mark Lamb (R) | R | R+9.1 | 87% R | Likely R |
| AZ-06 | JoAnna Mendoza (D) vs. Juan Ciscomani (R) | R | D+12.7 | 93% D | Likely DFlip |
| AZ-07 | Adelita Grijalva (D) vs. Daniel Butierez (R) | D | D+31.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| AZ-08 | Bernadette Greene-Placentia (D) vs. Abraham Hamadeh (R) | R | R+5.8 | 77% R | Lean R |
| AZ-09 | Danielle Sterbinsky (D) vs. Paul Gosar (R) | R | R+23.2 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.