2026 midterm forecast

Arizona

Two races on Arizona's November 3 ballot: the governor and all 9 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Arizona governor

Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Andy Biggs (R)

Chance to win

94%

Hobbs

Projected margin

D+8.7

Hobbs has a 94% chance to hold Arizona's governorship

All 9 House seats

Expected seats

5 D · 4 R

Statewide House vote

D+5.4

Democrats could take a majority of Arizona's House seats