2026 midterm forecast
New Mexico Senate
Ben Ray Luján (D) vs. Larry Marker (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Ben Ray Luján
Projected margin
D+16.9
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
16%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Luján holds a wide lead in New Mexico's Senate race
Luján is seeking a new term as a strong favorite over Marker, the Republican, and the seat is expected to stay Democratic.
College graduates back Luján by 43.1 points, but his lead among voters without a degree is 4.6. Many people who skipped the 2024 election have yet to choose, with 66% of them undecided. Marker keeps 88% of 2024 Trump voters, and Luján keeps 97% of Harris voters.
The race
- Democrat
- Ben Ray Luján (D)
- Republican
- Larry Marker (R)
- Seat held by
- Ben Ray Luján (D), running
Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's Republican opponent is Larry Marker, a Roswell oil and gas businessman nominated as a write-in. Luján's campaign centers on living costs, water and opposition to Medicaid cuts and tariffs. Marker's priorities are federal debt, stabilizing Social Security, oil and gas production and border security.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.LujánMarker
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.