2026 midterm forecast
New Mexico House
All 3 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
3 D · 0 R
of 3
Seats today
3 D · 0 R
Statewide House vote
D+15.3
99% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 16% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
New Mexico Democrats should hold all three House seats
Democrats are expected to keep all three of New Mexico's House seats. NM-02 is the closest race, with Democrats up 7.8 points. Their lead grows to 11.7 in NM-03 and 21.5 in NM-01.
Education is the clearest divide. College graduates favor Democrats by 42.4 points, while voters without a degree lean their way by only 2.9. Women back Democrats by 22.0 points and men by 13.4.
The race
New Mexico elects 3 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 3 Democrats.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM-01 | Melanie Ann Stansbury (D) vs. Ndidiamaka Okpareke (R) | D | D+21.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NM-02 | Gabriel Vasquez (D) vs. Greg Cunningham (R) | D | D+7.8 | 83% D | Likely D |
| NM-03 | Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) vs. Martin Ruben Zamora (R) | D | D+11.7 | 92% D | Likely D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.