2026 midterm forecast
New Mexico
Three races on New Mexico's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 3 House seats.
Forecast published October 30, 2026
New Mexico Senate
Ben Ray Luján (D) vs. Larry Marker (R)
Chance to win
>99%
Luján
Projected margin
D+16.9
Luján holds a wide lead in New Mexico's Senate race
Read the forecastNew Mexico governor
Deb Haaland (D) vs. Gregg Hull (R)
Chance to win
97%
Haaland
Projected margin
D+11.3
Haaland is the favorite to succeed Lujan Grisham in New Mexico
Read the forecastNew Mexico House
All 3 House seats
Expected seats
3 D · 0 R
Statewide House vote
D+15.3
New Mexico Democrats should hold all three House seats
Read the forecast