2026 midterm forecast
New Mexico governor
Deb Haaland (D) vs. Gregg Hull (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
97%
Deb Haaland
Projected margin
D+11.3
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
14%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Haaland is the favorite to succeed Lujan Grisham in New Mexico
The governor's office is open because Democratic Gov. Lujan Grisham is not running. Haaland, the Democrat, is well positioned to keep it for her party against Hull, a Republican.
Haaland leads across the board, but education sets the size of her lead. College graduates back her by 41.7 points, and voters without a degree by just 2.0. Voters 45 to 64 are also closer than other age groups, at 6.8 points.
The race
- Democrat
- Deb Haaland (D)
- Republican
- Gregg Hull (R)
- Seat held by
- Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), not running
Democrat Deb Haaland, a former U.S. interior secretary, and Republican Gregg Hull, a former Rio Rancho mayor, are running to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Haaland is pushing for a higher minimum wage, expanded tax credits, early literacy and faster housing permits. Hull wants to phase out the individual income tax, overhaul the child welfare agency and add police.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.HaalandHull
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.