2026 midterm forecast
New York House
All 26 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
19 D · 7 R
of 26
Seats today
19 D · 7 R
Statewide House vote
D+18.4
>99% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 19% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
New York Democrats could lose NY-03 but take NY-17
The parties are expected to finish where they started, with Democrats holding 19 of New York's 26 House seats and Republicans seven. That total hides a trade. Republicans are favored to take the Democratic-held NY-03, where they lead by just 0.5 points, while Democrats are favored to win the Republican-held NY-17.
Voters without a degree split evenly, and rural voters lean Republican by 4.2 points. Democrats build their lead on college graduates, at 36.3 points, and urban voters, at 37.1.
The race
New York elects 26 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 19 Democrats and 7 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-01 | Christopher Gallant (D) vs. Nicholas J. LaLota (R) | R | R+5.5 | 73% R | Lean R |
| NY-02 | Patrick Halpin (D) vs. Andrew Garbarino (R) | R | R+9.7 | 87% R | Likely R |
| NY-03 | Tom Suozzi (D) vs. Michael LiPetri (R) | D | R+0.5 | 52% R | Toss-upFlip |
| NY-04 | Laura Gillen (D) vs. Jeanine Driscoll (R) | D | D+5.4 | 73% D | Lean D |
| NY-05 | Gregory W. Meeks (D) vs. George Marsh (R) | D | D+48.6 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-06 | Grace Meng (D) vs. Joseph Chou (R) | D | D+12.3 | 92% D | Likely D |
| NY-07 | Claire Valdez (D) vs. Melvin Rivera (R) | D | D+52.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-08 | Hakeem Jeffries (D) vs. Lewis Mizrahi (R) | D | D+49.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-09 | Yvette D. Clarke (D) vs. Joel Anabilah-Azumah (R) | D | D+46.6 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-10 | Brad Lander (D) vs. Jennifer Moore (R) | D | D+67.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-11 | Michael DeCillis (D) vs. Nicole Malliotakis (R) | R | R+16.8 | 97% R | Safe R |
| NY-12 | Micah Lasher (D) vs. Caroline Shinkle (R) | D | D+70.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-13 | Darializa Avila Chevalier (D) vs. Manual Williams (R) | D | D+66.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-14 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) vs. Diamant Hysenaj (R) | D | D+39.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-15 | Ritchie Torres (D) vs. Stylo A. Sapaskis (R) | D | D+55.4 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-16 | George Latimer (D) vs. Joseph Cinquemani (R) | D | D+37.0 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-17 | Cait Conley (D) vs. Mike Lawler (R) | R | D+5.6 | 74% D | Lean DFlip |
| NY-18 | Pat Ryan (D) vs. Jacqueline Auringer (R) | D | D+8.7 | 84% D | Likely D |
| NY-19 | Josh Riley (D) vs. Peter Oberacker (R) | D | D+5.9 | 75% D | Lean D |
| NY-20 | Paul Tonko (D) vs. Ralph Ambrosio (R) | D | D+21.4 | 99% D | Safe D |
| NY-21 | Blake Gendebien (D) vs. Anthony Constantino (R) | R | R+16.1 | 97% R | Safe R |
| NY-22 | John Mannion (D) vs. Kailee Buller (R) | D | D+11.8 | 91% D | Likely D |
| NY-23 | Aaron Gies (D) vs. Nick Langworthy (R) | R | R+16.1 | 97% R | Safe R |
| NY-24 | Alissa Ellman (D) vs. Claudia Tenney (R) | R | R+16.8 | 97% R | Safe R |
| NY-25 | Joseph Morelle (D) vs. Virginia McIntyre (R) | D | D+24.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NY-26 | Timothy M. Kennedy (D) vs. Dennis Hannon (R) | D | D+24.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.