2026 midterm forecast
New York governor
Kathy Hochul (D) vs. Bruce Blakeman (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Kathy Hochul
Projected margin
D+17.4
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
20%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Hochul is heavily favored to keep New York's governorship
Hochul, a Democrat, is seeking reelection with a commanding lead over Blakeman, a Republican. Democrats are expected to keep the office.
Blakeman does best outside the cities. He edges Hochul by 1.4 points in the suburbs and 6.1 in rural areas, but Hochul leads urban voters by 34.7. She is also up 43.3 points among voters 18–29.
The race
- Democrat
- Kathy Hochul (D)
- Republican
- Bruce Blakeman (R)
- Seat held by
- Kathy Hochul (D), running
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, also on the Working Families line, is up against Republican Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, who is also on the Conservative line. Hochul points to middle-class tax cuts, energy rebate checks, free school meals and falling crime, and she links Blakeman to Trump. Blakeman wants to exempt the first $50,000 of income ($100,000 for couples) from state income tax, cut utility bills partly by lifting the fracking ban and end sanctuary policies. He ties Hochul to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.HochulBlakeman
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.