2026 midterm forecast
Wisconsin governor
David Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
84%
David Crowley
Projected margin
D+5.5
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
10%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Crowley has the inside track to succeed Evers in Wisconsin
Evers, the Democratic governor, is not running, and Crowley is favored to keep the office for his party. Tiffany, the Republican, has ground to make up but remains in contention.
Women give Crowley a 21.5-point lead, and men tilt to Tiffany by 6.6. Crowley's best group is urban voters, who back him by 37.7 points, and Tiffany's is rural voters, at 8.2.
The race
- Democrat
- David Crowley (D)
- Republican
- Tom Tiffany (R)
- Seat held by
- Tony Evers (D), not running
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is not seeking a third term, and the race for the open seat pits Democrat David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, against Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany of the 7th District. Crowley talks about affordability and backs more public school funding without expanding vouchers, expanding BadgerCare and local control over data centers. Tiffany has proposed returning the projected state surplus through income and property tax cuts, ending state taxes on tips and overtime, and no subsidies for data centers.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.CrowleyTiffany
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.