2026 midterm forecast
Wisconsin House
All 8 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
4 D · 4 R
of 8
Seats today
2 D · 6 R
Statewide House vote
D+6.7
86% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 10% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Wisconsin's House delegation could end up evenly split
Democrats lead in two Republican-held districts, WI-01 and WI-03, and winning both would leave each party with four of the state's eight seats. Republicans hold six today. Both races are close, with Democrats up 0.5 points in WI-01 and 2.4 in WI-03.
College graduates back Democrats by 31.2 points, while voters without a degree tilt slightly Republican. Republicans also hold a 6.3-point edge in rural areas, and Democrats lead urban voters by 37.0.
The race
Wisconsin elects 8 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Democrats and 6 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-01 | Mitchell Berman (D) vs. Bryan Steil (R) | R | D+0.5 | 53% D | Toss-upFlip |
| WI-02 | Mark Pocan (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| WI-03 | Rebecca Cooke (D) vs. Derrick Van Orden (R) | R | D+2.4 | 61% D | Lean DFlip |
| WI-04 | Gwen Moore (D) vs. Tim Rogers (R) | D | D+61.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| WI-05 | Andrew Beck (D) vs. Scott Fitzgerald (R) | R | R+12.7 | 94% R | Likely R |
| WI-06 | Brad Smith (D) vs. Glenn Grothman (R) | R | R+12.6 | 93% R | Likely R |
| WI-07 | Fred Clark (D) vs. Michael Alfonso (R) | R | R+15.2 | 96% R | Safe R |
| WI-08 | Rick Crosson (D) vs. Tony Wied (R) | R | R+5.7 | 75% R | Lean R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.