2026 midterm forecast
Mississippi Senate
Scott Colom (D) vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
97%
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Projected margin
R+12.0
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
20%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Colom trails Hyde-Smith by 12 points in Mississippi's Senate race
Hyde-Smith, the Republican incumbent, is defending her seat with a clear lead over Democrat Colom. Pinkins is a third candidate, running as an independent.
College graduates are nearly split, giving Hyde-Smith a 0.3-point edge, while voters without a degree back her by 20.7. Voters 65 and older lean to Colom by 1.8 points, and every other age group favors Hyde-Smith.
The race
- Democrat
- Scott Colom (D)
- Republican
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Ty Pinkins (I)
- Seat held by
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), running
Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is seeking a second full term against Democrat Scott Colom, a district attorney, and independent Ty Pinkins, the Democrats' 2024 Senate nominee. Hyde-Smith points to her record on rural health care, national security and law enforcement. Colom wants to raise wages, lower costs and protect rural hospitals. Pinkins presents himself as an alternative to both parties.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.ColomHyde-Smith
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.