2026 midterm forecast
Mississippi House
All 4 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
1 D · 3 R
of 4
Seats today
1 D · 3 R
Statewide House vote
R+16.6
99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 22% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Mississippi's three-to-one Republican House delegation looks secure
Mississippi's four House seats are not expected to change hands, with Republicans keeping three and Democrats one. The tightest race, MS-03, leans Republican by 23.4 points, and Democrats lead their lone district, MS-02, by 25.8.
Republicans run strongest among urban voters, who back them by 62.2 points. Voters 65 and older are the only age group leaning Democratic, by 2.3, while those under 30 favor Republicans by 30.5.
The race
Mississippi elects 4 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS-01 | Cliff Johnson (D) vs. Trent Kelly (R) | R | R+32.5 | >99% R | Safe R |
| MS-02 | Bennie G. Thompson (D) vs. Ron Eller (R) | D | D+25.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MS-03 | Michael Chiaradio (D) vs. Michael Guest (R) | R | R+23.4 | >99% R | Safe R |
| MS-04 | Jeffrey Hulum (D) vs. Mike Ezell (R) | R | R+34.5 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.