2026 midterm forecast
Oregon Senate
Jeff Merkley (D) vs. David Brock Smith (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Jeff Merkley
Projected margin
D+19.9
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
13%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Oregon's Senate seat looks safe for Merkley
Merkley, a Democrat seeking another term, is the clear favorite against Smith, a Republican, and the seat is expected to stay with his party.
Education divides Oregon voters more than anything else. Merkley leads college graduates by 50.1 points, while voters without a degree are nearly split, leaning his way by 0.1. Smith's best group is rural voters, at 8.0 points. Among 2024 non-voters, 71% have not made up their minds.
The race
- Democrat
- Jeff Merkley (D)
- Republican
- David Brock Smith (R)
- Seat held by
- Jeff Merkley (D), running
Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley, first elected in 2008, is up against Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith. Merkley is campaigning against what he calls the Trump administration's erosion of the Constitution and talks about the costs of housing, health care and education. Brock Smith's campaign has focused on affordability, no new taxes, public safety and wildfire prevention.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.MerkleySmith
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.