2026 midterm forecast
Oregon governor
Tina Kotek (D) vs. Christine Drazan (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
99%
Tina Kotek
Projected margin
D+13.4
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
13%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Kotek is well placed to keep Oregon's governorship for Democrats
Oregon's Democratic governor is in a strong position. Kotek leads Drazan, a Republican, by a solid margin as she runs for another term, and the office is unlikely to change parties.
Women and college graduates power Kotek's lead. She is ahead by 34.1 points among women and 47.3 among college graduates, while Drazan narrowly wins men, by 1.3, and voters without a degree, by 4.3. Rural voters back Drazan by 14.3 points.
The race
- Democrat
- Tina Kotek (D)
- Republican
- Christine Drazan (R)
- Seat held by
- Tina Kotek (D), running
Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is in a rematch with Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan, whom she beat 47.0% to 43.6% in 2022, when independent Betsy Johnson took 8.6%. Kotek is running on opposing Trump administration policies and protecting the Oregon Health Plan, abortion access and vote by mail. Drazan points to Kotek's record on housing and homelessness, opposes new taxes and wants to loosen building and land-use rules.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.KotekDrazan
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.