2026 midterm forecast

Oregon

Three races on Oregon's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 6 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Oregon Senate

Jeff Merkley (D) vs. David Brock Smith (R)

Chance to win

>99%

Merkley

Projected margin

D+19.9

Oregon's Senate seat looks safe for Merkley

Tina Kotek (D) vs. Christine Drazan (R)

Chance to win

99%

Kotek

Projected margin

D+13.4

Kotek is well placed to keep Oregon's governorship for Democrats

All 6 House seats

Expected seats

5 D · 1 R

Statewide House vote

D+20.0

Oregon Democrats should keep five of the state's six House seats