2026 midterm forecast
Oregon House
All 6 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
5 D · 1 R
of 6
Seats today
5 D · 1 R
Statewide House vote
D+20.0
>99% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 13% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Oregon Democrats should keep five of the state's six House seats
Democrats hold five of Oregon's six House seats, and none is expected to change parties. Their closest race is OR-05, where they lead by 12.5 points. OR-06 and OR-04 are next, at 16.3 and 18.1.
College graduates are the most Democratic group, backing the party by 50.6 points. Voters without a degree barely lean Democratic, by 0.4, and rural voters favor Republicans by 8.4.
The race
Oregon elects 6 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 5 Democrats and 1 Republican.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR-01 | Suzanne Bonamici (D) vs. Barbara Kahl (R) | D | D+44.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| OR-02 | Chris Beck (D) vs. Cliff Bentz (R) | R | R+20.9 | 99% R | Safe R |
| OR-03 | Maxine Dexter (D) vs. Loran Ayles (R) | D | D+49.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| OR-04 | Val Hoyle (D) vs. Monique DeSpain (R) | D | D+18.1 | 99% D | Safe D |
| OR-05 | Janelle Bynum (D) vs. Patti Adair (R) | D | D+12.5 | 94% D | Likely D |
| OR-06 | Andrea Salinas (D) vs. David Russ (R) | D | D+16.3 | 98% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.