2026 midterm forecast
Georgia Senate
Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Mike Collins (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
95%
Jon Ossoff
Projected margin
D+8.9
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
9%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Ossoff is in a strong position to hold Georgia's Senate seat
Ossoff, a Democrat, is defending his seat and has a clear lead over Republican Collins. Collins could still close the gap, but the incumbent is a solid favorite.
Ossoff keeps 99% of Harris voters, while Collins holds 92% of Trump voters. The suburbs lean to Ossoff by 19.3 points, and Collins does best in rural Georgia, where he leads by 20.2.
The race
- Democrat
- Jon Ossoff (D)
- Republican
- Mike Collins (R)
- Seat held by
- Jon Ossoff (D), running
- Note
- Majority required, or a Dec 1 runoff
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for a second term against Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins. Ossoff has pushed for capping insulin and prescription costs, cracking down on corporate homebuying and banning congressional stock trading. Collins backs Trump's agenda and immigration enforcement and points to the Laken Riley Act, which he sponsored. They have debated twice.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.OssoffCollins
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.