2026 midterm forecast
Georgia governor
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs. Rick Jackson (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
67%
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Projected margin
D+2.4
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
8%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Lance Bottoms is slightly favored to flip Georgia's open governor's seat
Lance Bottoms is narrowly ahead of Jackson for the seat held by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who is not running. A win would flip the office to Democrats, but the margin is thin.
The gap between cities and the countryside is stark. Lance Bottoms leads urban voters by 43.2 points, and Jackson leads rural voters by 20.6. She carries both women and men, by 13.1 and 6.4 points.
The race
- Democrat
- Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)
- Republican
- Rick Jackson (R)
- Seat held by
- Brian Kemp (R), not running
- Note
- Majority required, or a Dec 1 runoff
In the race for the open seat, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor, wants to repeal the state grocery tax, expand Medicaid and pause new data centers. Republican Rick Jackson, founder of Jackson Healthcare, promises to halve the state income tax, end state tax on tips and freeze home valuations. The candidates debated once.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.Lance BottomsJackson
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.