2026 midterm forecast
Georgia House
All 14 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
6 D · 8 R
of 14
Seats today
5 D · 9 R
Statewide House vote
D+6.5
85% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 10% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Two Georgia House races are tight, and Democrats could gain a seat
Republicans have a 9-5 edge in Georgia's House delegation, and Democrats are expected to narrow it to 8-6, though no single district is projected to flip. Republicans lead by just 4.4 points in GA-01 and 5.6 in GA-12.
College graduates favor Democrats by 32.8 points, and voters without a degree lean Republican by 7.9. Older voters are the exception among age groups, with those 65 and older favoring Republicans by 7.6.
The race
Georgia elects 14 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 5 Democrats and 9 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA-01 | Amanda Hollowell (D) vs. James Kingston (R) | R | R+4.4 | 70% R | Lean R |
| GA-02 | Sanford Bishop (D) vs. Matt Day (R) | D | D+15.9 | 97% D | Safe D |
| GA-03 | Maura Keller (D) vs. Brian Jack (R) | R | R+22.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
| GA-04 | Hank Johnson (D) vs. James Duffie (R) | D | D+62.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| GA-05 | Nikema Williams (D) vs. John Salvesen (R) | D | D+82.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| GA-06 | Lucy McBath (D) vs. Kevin Martin (R) | D | D+57.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| GA-07 | Tony Kozycki (D) vs. Rich McCormick (R) | R | R+16.0 | 97% R | Safe R |
| GA-08 | Kelly Esti (D) vs. Austin Scott (R) | R | R+20.9 | 99% R | Safe R |
| GA-09 | Caitlyn Gegen (D) vs. Andrew Clyde (R) | R | R+22.1 | >99% R | Safe R |
| GA-10 | Pamela DeLancy (D) vs. Houston Gaines (R) | R | R+14.8 | 96% R | Safe R |
| GA-11 | Chris Harden (D) vs. John Cowan (R) | R | R+15.5 | 97% R | Safe R |
| GA-12 | Ceretta Smith (D) vs. Rick Allen (R) | R | R+5.6 | 74% R | Lean R |
| GA-13 | Jasmine Clark (D) vs. Jonathan Chavez (R) | D | D+53.0 | >99% D | Safe D |
| GA-14 | Shawn Harris (D) vs. Clayton Fuller (R) | R | R+30.6 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.